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African Swine Fever and the ban on meat exports to China and the rest of the world
Canada's pork export performance from 2017 to 2018 suffers a drop of more than 6 million kg due to the ASF in the summer of 2018. Millions of live pigs were slaughtered and the market suffered as a result.
Furthermore, in 2019 Canada was banned from exporting pork and beef to China because of a case of falsification documents authorising producers to export their products. Fortunately, the ban did not last long.
After two years of ASF, pork production increases considerably and exports start to stabilise. China is again demanding the product, so meat exports to China from Canada are gradually increasing. In that year, 2020, covid-19 appeared, and due to the impossibility of moving, the demand for the product grew even more. In that year, exports reached 390,987,159 kg, or USD 930,480,129.
So far this year 2022, 46,563,818 kg have been exported for a value of USD 81,293,410.
Evolution of swine exports to China per month
As can be seen in the graph, exports have been increasing over the months during the first quarter. From March to May -3,744,295.00 kg have been exported, but the growth rate between January and May is very positive. In these five months it has increased by 50%, so we expect this situation to continue in the coming months and to export more and more.
Evolution of swine price per year
We note that the price has been increasing over time. With what has happened over the years and the high level of demand from the Chinese market, the price has gone higher and higher.
Daniel Burt, manager of the Paraguayan Meat Chamber (CPC) explained in an interview (2020):
“Meat is, like many products, governed by the law of supply and demand. To this, other issues, such as the climate, must be added. It must be taken into account that the livestock herd has been affected by the drought and the lowering of the rivers. There are also several factors that have an impact on this price increase, such as fuel, which causes freight prices to rise; also commodities (raw materials), especially grains and animal feed in general, which have risen sharply in price. All this affects a demand that does not fall and a supply that is far below what that demand requires".
Evolution of swine price in last five months
In 2017 the price per kg of pork was USD 1.64 and last year it reached USD 2.58. In contrast, in the five months so far in 2022, the price has fallen. In January it reached an average price of USD 1.99/kg and this past month it was USD 1.07/kg.
To conclude, we note that the pork market for Canada in this year 2022 will remain stable with respect to the previous year's growth, according to USDA forecast reports.
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